Could the Border Crisis Spark Another Great Depression?

By: Kasey Lynae

Many have now seen my Tweet on X, formerly known as Twitter, about Maine prioritizing new affordable housing for Illegal Immigrants. Rather than allow the American citizens of Maine who have been on the waitlist for some time, Brunswick, South Portland's newest apartment complex, with each unit valued at $2,000 per month, will be given to illegal aliens for FREE. 

Governor Millstone of Maine has emphasized the importance of assisting the illegal influx in the state since the number of illegal immigrants has increased by between 3,000 and 15,000 from last year. Her new legislative proposal, "The Office of New Americans," will be unveiled on January 19th.

The housing complex comprises 60 apartments spread over five buildings at the former Naval Air Station in Brunswick. Developers Collaborative is leading the project, and the state of Maine has allocated funds to provide rent, totally free, for up to two years. Illegal residents of Midcoast Maine can also receive support services and free transportation from the Immigrant Resource Center of Maine and United Way of Midcoast Maine. In addition, the state has created a $55 million Emergency Housing Relief Fund, which provides permanent, transitional, and emergency housing for immigrants - regardless of their legal status.

In our country, the civil unrest caused by mass immigration is getting worse each day, and Maine isn't the only state with this type of initiative.

California allocated $5.2 billion to pay off rent debts of low-income tenants, including undocumented immigrants. Over $800 million has been spent in Texas to house migrants in hotels and motels, as well as to provide security and transportation services. Washington state created $65 million to provide cash assistance to undocumented immigrants excluded from federal programs before 2019. Millions of dollars have been spent in New York, Illinois, Colorado, and Massachusetts to shelter undocumented migrants. 

So what has been happening with Americans while undocumented migrants receive free housing, transportation and other free goods? 

The most recent estimate of homelessness in the US comes from the Point-in-Time (PIT) Count conducted in January 2022 by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The PIT Count reported that 582,462 people were experiencing homelessness on a given night in 2022. An upward trend in unsheltered rates also impacts most racial, ethnic, and gender groups. 

As homeless services systems continue to expand, they are still unable to meet the needs of every individual -unless you are an immigrant, that is. The truth is rising rents, job losses, poverty, domestic violence, and the lack of affordable housing, the COVID-19 pandemic and the surge of migrants have exacerbated the US housing crisis. 

The PIT Count was conducted separately on US Veterans. Homelessness among veterans in 2022 was 33,129 on any given night. Homelessness among veterans has been on the rise since 2017, up 6 percent overall. Statistics for 2022 show that 421,392 veterans and 127,768 chronically homeless veterans reached record highs, with rates trending upward. 

Side note: two years have passed since the last PIT. We're due for another research study soon.  

With all of these statistics in mind, I can't help but keep thinking about the border crisis concerning the economy and the impending loom and doom that gets me in the feels about a Great Depression 2.0. I did more digging to see how accurate my theory might be. 

It's hard to predict when the next depression will strike. How the government, the Federal Reserve, and the private sector handle challenges and shocks in the future will determine the kind of economic downturn we get. But some of the most significant factors that could increase the risk of a depression include a prolonged pandemic (oh look, we had one already), a major financial crisis (I'd say 34 Trillion in debt qualifies), a geopolitical conflict (Israel/ Palestine, Ukraine/Russia, and now Yemen), a natural disaster, or a social unrest (Open Border Crisis, Social Contagian Agendas). 

Here are some comparisons and contrasts between the 1930s and today.

There was deflation in the US during the Great Depression, meaning prices fell. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation was negative from 1930 to 1933, reaching -10.3% in 1932. However, the US has seen inflation in recent years, which means the prices of goods and services are going up. Between 2010 and 2020, the annual inflation rate was positive, reaching a high of 3.2% in 2011 when Obama was in office. In November 2021 (the Biden Administration), the inflation rate was 6.8%, the highest since 1982. 

Fortunately, there are relatively few chances of deflation. This is probably because inflation is so high. On the flip side, the New York Fed's recession probability model suggests a 51.8% chance of recession sometime in the next year. 

Let's look at poverty statistics.  

Poverty rates weren't measured during the Great Depression, so it's hard to compare them. Some estimates say the poverty rate was around 60% in 1933, when the depression peaked. Contrary to this, the US has had an official poverty measure since the 1960s, which compares pretax money income with a poverty threshold. According to the Census Bureau, the official poverty rate in 2023 was 11.5%, with 37.9 million Americans in poverty. 

The poverty percentages seem drastic, but when you look at the percentage in contrast with the actual population size during the great depression and today, you get a different picture. There were 123.2 million US citizens during the Great Depression - meaning 60% equated to 73.2 million people affected by poverty. Compare that with the 37.9 million Americans affected by poverty today, and the picture starts to look grossly familiar. 

Let's look at affected industries. 

Virtually every sector of the economy was affected by the Great Depression, but some industries suffered more than others. Production output in the industrial sector dropped 47%. Wholesale prices fell 33%. US industrial economic output decreased by nearly 50%, resulting in $55 billion in losses. At 30%, GDP hit its lowest point. Agricultural challenges included falling prices, overproduction, droughts, and dust storms. Some farmers migrated to other regions for work after losing their land and livelihoods. 

Comparatively, The COVID-19 pandemic and the surge of migrants at the border have also impacted the US economy, affecting different industries. In 2020, the real GDP declined by 3.4%, the most significant decline since 1946, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP grew 6.7% in the third quarter of 2021, indicating a recovery from the pandemic. But many industries, like leisure and hospitality, transportation and warehousing, and arts and entertainment, have yet to fully recover. Labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and trade tensions also hit the agricultural sector. 

Overall, our numbers look okay for avoiding a depression. But if I may reiterate, some of the major risk factors of depression include a prolonged pandemic, a massive financial crisis, a geopolitical conflict, a natural disaster, or social unrest. I don't think this should be ignored.

It seems to me the Democrats want this to happen. 

The Democrats planned that pandemic. Biden's administration has gotten involved with multiple wars, with another added just yesterday in Yemen. Illegal Immigrants are replacing Americans. If our country does not fall into depression, it indeed is still vanishing before our very eyes. The question is - is it redeemable?